WP2.3 – Vari­ab­il­ity of the sea­sonal pre­dict­ab­il­ity of North At­lantic and European sum­mer tem­per­at­ures

Climate models have to be tested to find out if they can provide reliable predictions. Therefore, climate models are validated in so-called “retrospective forecasts”, i.e. predictions of the past based exclusively on climate information available at that time, which can be compared to observational data.   The aim of this project is to analyze the variations of the summer climate over Europe over the past 100 years to draw conclusions on the variations of predictability of the summer climate over Europe. We investigate to what extent the predictive skill of individual summers depends on the prevailing weather patterns in the respective year. For this purpose, we investigate an ensemble of retrospective forecasts, and test whether the prediction skill for the summer climate over Europe can be improved if the respective weather patterns are considered in the predictability analysis. The specific aim of this project is to make the results directly usable for future predictions of summer climate over Europe.

Seasonal prediction skill of the assessed climate model in the months July-August for 500hPa pressure (left) before and (right) after our analysis. Dots mark areas with significant prediction skill. (Image: IfM, University of Hamburg)

Objectives and research questions

  • Seasonal predictions of summer climate over Europe
  • Which regions and weather patterns influence European summer climate?
  • Does the prediction skill depend on the dominant weather patterns?

Methods

PI

Johanna Baehr, Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg

Team

Nele-Charlotte Neddermann, Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg