WP3.4 – High resolution initialised decadal forecasts of Atlantic and European climate variations

Near-term climate predictions bridge the gap between weather forecasts and long-term climate projections for the coming centuries. Our research contributes to the establishment of a near-term prediction system that will provide predictions for the North-Atlantic and Europe, which are relevant for decision making in politics, society and economy. Decadal predictions are based on a precise estimate of the ocean’s state and a realistic representation of its temporal and spatial evolution. This pro­ject will in­vest­ig­ate the in­ter­an­nual-to-decadal vari­ab­il­ity and pre­dict­ab­il­ity of the North At­lantic cir­cu­la­tion and of the sur­round­ing con­tin­ental re­gions (Europe, Nor­dic Seas) us­ing a coupled model sys­tem with a very high res­ol­u­tion in the ocean com­pon­ent. Improved rep­res­ent­a­tions of oceanic and at­mo­spheric cir­cu­la­tion and air-sea in­ter­ac­tions’ strength trans­lates into dif­fer­ent vari­ab­il­ity and sig­nal propaga­tion char­ac­ter­ist­ics, and con­sequently on dif­fer­ent levels of pre­dict­ab­il­ity.

Research questions and goals

  • What is the role of ocean dynamics in near-term predictions and what is the influence of the representation in an eddy-resolving ocean model?
  • Investigation of ocean-atmosphere interactions in relation to model resolution in the component models
  • Analysis and evaluation of hindcast simulations for the last decades and for forecasts of the next few decades in comparison with observations


Velocity at 100m depth in the MPI-ESM-ER model (historical period, December 1980). (Image: MPI, Hamburg)


Johann Jungclaus, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Jochem Marotzke, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Daniela Matei, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Jin-Song von Storch, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg


Oliver Gutjahr, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

Helmuth Haak, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg